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lda committed 2025-05-12 23:31:00 +07:00
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from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
import torch
device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import numpy as np
from load_data import load_this_data
a = load_this_data()
# time series forecasting
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
print(a.columns)
scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(a)
def create_sequences(data, seq_length):
"see this? return[0] is the big x and return[1] is the big y. and h(x) = y. and h(x) is the model."
xs = []
ys = []
for i in range(len(data) - seq_length):
x = data[i : (i + seq_length)]
y = data[i + seq_length]
xs.append(x)
ys.append(y)
return np.array(xs), np.array(ys)
seq_length = 20
X, y = create_sequences(scaled_data, seq_length)
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42
)
from torch.utils.data import TensorDataset, DataLoader
X_train_tensor = torch.tensor(X_train, dtype=torch.float32)
y_train_tensor = torch.tensor(y_train, dtype=torch.float32)
train_dataset = TensorDataset(X_train_tensor, y_train_tensor)
train_loader = DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=True)
import torch.nn as nn
class LSTMModel(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, output_size):
super(LSTMModel, self).__init__()
self.hidden_size = hidden_size
self.num_layers = num_layers
self.lstm = nn.LSTM(input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, batch_first=True)
self.fc = nn.Linear(hidden_size, output_size)
def forward(self, x):
h0 = torch.zeros(self.num_layers, x.size(0), self.hidden_size).to(device)
c0 = torch.zeros(self.num_layers, x.size(0), self.hidden_size).to(device)
out, _ = self.lstm(x, (h0, c0))
out = self.fc(out[:, -1, :]) # Take the output from the last time step
return out
model = LSTMModel(
input_size=X_train.shape[2],
hidden_size=64,
num_layers=2,
output_size=y_train.shape[1],
)
model.to(device)
criterion = nn.MSELoss()
optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=0.001)
train_losses = []
val_losses = []
for epoch in range(100):
model.train()
running_train_loss = 0.0
# inputs, targets
for batch_X, batch_y in train_loader:
batch_X = batch_X.to(device)
batch_y = batch_y.to(device)
outputs = model(batch_X)
loss = criterion(outputs, batch_y)
optimizer.zero_grad()
loss.backward()
optimizer.step()
running_train_loss += loss.item() * batch_X.size(0)
if (epoch + 1) % 10 == 0:
print(f"Epoch [{epoch+1}/100], Loss: {loss.item():.4f}")
epoch_train_loss = running_train_loss / len(train_loader.dataset)
train_losses.append(epoch_train_loss)
model.eval()
X_test_tensor = torch.tensor(X_test, dtype=torch.float32).to(device)
y_test_tensor = torch.tensor(y_test, dtype=torch.float32).to(device)
val_dataset = TensorDataset(X_test_tensor, y_test_tensor)
val_loader = DataLoader(val_dataset, batch_size=64, shuffle=False)
# with torch.no_grad():
# running_val_loss = 0.0
# predictions = model(X_test_tensor)
# test_loss = criterion(predictions, y_test_tensor)
# print(f"Test Loss: {test_loss.item():.4f}")
running_val_loss = 0.0
predictions = []
with torch.no_grad():
for inputs, targets in val_loader:
inputs, targets = inputs.to(device), targets.to(device)
outputs = model(inputs)
loss = criterion(outputs, targets)
running_val_loss += loss.item() * inputs.size(0)
predictions.append(outputs.cpu().numpy()) # Collect all batches
epoch_val_loss = running_val_loss / len(val_loader.dataset) # len(val_dataset)
val_losses.append(epoch_val_loss)
predictions = np.concatenate(predictions, axis=0)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
y_test_cpu = y_test_tensor.cpu().numpy()
predictions_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(predictions)
y_test_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(y_test_cpu)
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(
1, 2, figsize=(14, 5), gridspec_kw={"width_ratios": [1, 3]}
)
# Loss curve on the left
ax1.plot(train_losses, label="Train Loss")
ax1.plot(val_losses, label="Val Loss")
ax1.set_title("Loss Curve")
ax1.set_xlabel("Epoch")
ax1.set_ylabel("Loss")
ax1.legend()
ax1.grid(True)
# Prediction vs Actual on the right
ax2.plot(y_test_rescaled, label="Actual")
ax2.plot(predictions_rescaled, label="Predicted")
ax2.set_title("Actual vs. Predicted")
ax2.set_xlabel("Sample")
ax2.set_ylabel("Value")
ax2.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
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DATA_FILE_NAME = "hanoi_weather_data.csv"
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"extracting the load data step from the notebook"
import io
# from itertools import islice
from typing import Union
def cut_headers(stream: Union[io.StringIO, io.FileIO, io.TextIOWrapper]):
headers = []
exist_startheader = False
while line := stream.readline():
if "-BEGIN HEADER-" in line and not exist_startheader:
exist_startheader = True
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif "-END HEADER-" in line and exist_startheader:
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
break
elif exist_startheader:
# print(f"{line = }")
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif not exist_startheader:
continue
if not exist_startheader:
# If no headers are found, reset the stream and return
stream.seek(0)
return "", stream
return "\n".join(headers), stream
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from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
import torch
device = torch.device("cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu")
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
import numpy as np
from load_data import load_this_data
a = load_this_data()
# time series forecasting
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
print(a.columns)
scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(a)
def create_sequences(data, seq_length):
"see this? return[0] is the big x and return[1] is the big y. and h(x) = y. and h(x) is the model."
xs = []
ys = []
for i in range(len(data) - seq_length):
x = data[i : (i + seq_length)]
y = data[i + seq_length]
xs.append(x)
ys.append(y)
return np.array(xs), np.array(ys)
seq_length = 20
X, y = create_sequences(scaled_data, seq_length)
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(
X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42
)
from torch.utils.data import TensorDataset, DataLoader
X_train_tensor = torch.tensor(X_train, dtype=torch.float32)
y_train_tensor = torch.tensor(y_train, dtype=torch.float32)
train_dataset = TensorDataset(X_train_tensor, y_train_tensor)
train_loader = DataLoader(train_dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=True)
import torch.nn as nn
class LSTMModel(nn.Module):
def __init__(self, input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, output_size):
super(LSTMModel, self).__init__()
self.hidden_size = hidden_size
self.num_layers = num_layers
self.lstm = nn.LSTM(input_size, hidden_size, num_layers, batch_first=True)
self.fc = nn.Linear(hidden_size, output_size)
def forward(self, x):
h0 = torch.zeros(self.num_layers, x.size(0), self.hidden_size).to(device)
c0 = torch.zeros(self.num_layers, x.size(0), self.hidden_size).to(device)
out, _ = self.lstm(x, (h0, c0))
out = self.fc(out[:, -1, :]) # Take the output from the last time step
return out
model = LSTMModel(
input_size=X_train.shape[2],
hidden_size=64,
num_layers=2,
output_size=y_train.shape[1],
)
model.to(device)
criterion = nn.MSELoss()
optimizer = torch.optim.Adam(model.parameters(), lr=0.001)
train_losses = []
val_losses = []
for epoch in range(100):
model.train()
running_train_loss = 0.0
# inputs, targets
for batch_X, batch_y in train_loader:
batch_X = batch_X.to(device)
batch_y = batch_y.to(device)
outputs = model(batch_X)
loss = criterion(outputs, batch_y)
optimizer.zero_grad()
loss.backward()
optimizer.step()
running_train_loss += loss.item() * batch_X.size(0)
if (epoch + 1) % 10 == 0:
print(f"Epoch [{epoch+1}/100], Loss: {loss.item():.4f}")
epoch_train_loss = running_train_loss / len(train_loader.dataset)
train_losses.append(epoch_train_loss)
model.eval()
X_test_tensor = torch.tensor(X_test, dtype=torch.float32).to(device)
y_test_tensor = torch.tensor(y_test, dtype=torch.float32).to(device)
val_dataset = TensorDataset(X_test_tensor, y_test_tensor)
val_loader = DataLoader(val_dataset, batch_size=64, shuffle=False)
# with torch.no_grad():
# running_val_loss = 0.0
# predictions = model(X_test_tensor)
# test_loss = criterion(predictions, y_test_tensor)
# print(f"Test Loss: {test_loss.item():.4f}")
running_val_loss = 0.0
predictions = []
with torch.no_grad():
for inputs, targets in val_loader:
inputs, targets = inputs.to(device), targets.to(device)
outputs = model(inputs)
loss = criterion(outputs, targets)
running_val_loss += loss.item() * inputs.size(0)
predictions.append(outputs.cpu().numpy()) # Collect all batches
epoch_val_loss = running_val_loss / len(val_loader.dataset) # len(val_dataset)
val_losses.append(epoch_val_loss)
predictions = np.concatenate(predictions, axis=0)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
y_test_cpu = y_test_tensor.cpu().numpy()
predictions_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(predictions)
y_test_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(y_test_cpu)
fig, (ax1, ax2) = plt.subplots(
1, 2, figsize=(14, 5), gridspec_kw={"width_ratios": [1, 3]}
)
# Loss curve on the left
ax1.plot(train_losses, label="Train Loss")
ax1.plot(val_losses, label="Val Loss")
ax1.set_title("Loss Curve")
ax1.set_xlabel("Epoch")
ax1.set_ylabel("Loss")
ax1.legend()
ax1.grid(True)
# Prediction vs Actual on the right
ax2.plot(y_test_rescaled, label="Actual")
ax2.plot(predictions_rescaled, label="Predicted")
ax2.set_title("Actual vs. Predicted")
ax2.set_xlabel("Sample")
ax2.set_ylabel("Value")
ax2.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
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import sys
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import io
from typing import Union
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from statsmodels.tsa.ar_model import AutoReg
# ==== LOAD & CLEAN DATA ====
DATA_FILE_NAME = "hanoi_weather_data.csv"
def cut_headers(stream: Union[io.StringIO, io.FileIO, io.TextIOWrapper]):
headers = []
exist_startheader = False
while line := stream.readline():
if "-BEGIN HEADER-" in line and not exist_startheader:
exist_startheader = True
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif "-END HEADER-" in line and exist_startheader:
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
break
elif exist_startheader:
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif not exist_startheader:
continue
if not exist_startheader:
stream.seek(0)
return "", stream
return "\n".join(headers), stream
with open(DATA_FILE_NAME, "r", encoding="utf-8") as file:
data_header, csv_file = cut_headers(file)
data = pd.read_csv(csv_file, na_values=-999)
if all(z in data.columns for z in ("YEAR", "MO", "DY")):
data["date"] = pd.to_datetime(
{k: data[v] for v, k in zip(["YEAR", "MO", "DY"], ["year", "month", "day"])}
)
data.drop(columns=["YEAR", "MO", "DY"], inplace=True)
data.set_index("date", inplace=True)
data.dropna(inplace=True)
# ==== VISUALIZE CORRELATION ====
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 8))
sns.heatmap(data.corr(), annot=True, cmap="coolwarm")
plt.title("Feature Correlation Heatmap")
plt.show()
# ==== SCALE DATA ====
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(data)
# ==== CREATE SEQUENCES ====
def create_sequences(data, seq_length):
xs, ys = [], []
for i in range(len(data) - seq_length):
x = data[i:i + seq_length].flatten()
y = data[i + seq_length]
xs.append(x)
ys.append(y)
return np.array(xs), np.array(ys)
seq_length = 50
X, y = create_sequences(scaled_data, seq_length)
# ==== SPLIT ====
date_index = data.index[seq_length:]
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test, date_train, date_test = train_test_split(
X, y, date_index, test_size=0.02, shuffle=False
)
# ==== TRAIN LINEAR REGRESSION ====
model = LinearRegression()
model.fit(X_train, y_train)
predictions = model.predict(X_test)
# ==== EVALUATION ====
mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, predictions)
r2 = r2_score(y_test, predictions)
print(f"Test MSE: {mse:.4f}")
print(f"Test R2: {r2:.4f}")
print(f"Model Score: {model.score(X_test, y_test):.4f}")
# ==== INVERSE TRANSFORM ====
predictions_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(
predictions.reshape(-1, data.shape[1])
)
y_test_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(
y_test.reshape(-1, data.shape[1])
)
# ==== PLOTS ====
# Actual vs Predicted with Real Dates
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
plt.plot(date_test, y_test_rescaled[:, 0], label="Actual")
plt.plot(date_test, predictions_rescaled[:, 0], label="Predicted")
plt.title("Actual vs Predicted (First Feature)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Original Scale")
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
# Residual Plot
residuals = y_test[:, 0] - predictions[:, 0]
plt.figure(figsize=(10, 4))
plt.plot(date_test, residuals, label="Residuals")
plt.hlines(0, 0, len(residuals), colors="red")
plt.title("Residuals Over Time (First Feature)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel("Error")
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()
# Error Distribution
errors = np.abs(y_test[:, 0] - predictions[:, 0])
plt.hist(errors, bins=50)
plt.title("Error Distribution (First Feature)")
plt.xlabel("Absolute Error")
plt.ylabel("Frequency")
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()
# Scatter Plot
plt.scatter(y_test[:, 0], predictions[:, 0], alpha=0.5)
plt.plot([0, 1], [0, 1], "r--")
plt.title("Predicted vs Actual (Normalized)")
plt.xlabel("Actual")
plt.ylabel("Predicted")
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()
# ==== AUTOREGRESSION FORECAST ====
target_column = data.columns[0]
series = data[target_column]
train_size = int(len(series) * 0.98)
train_series = series[:train_size]
test_series = series[train_size:]
ar_model = AutoReg(train_series, lags=30).fit()
ar_preds = ar_model.predict(start=len(train_series), end=len(series)-1)
# Plot AR Forecast
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 5))
plt.plot(test_series.index, test_series, label="Actual")
plt.plot(test_series.index, ar_preds, label="AR Forecast", linestyle="--")
plt.title(f"AutoRegression Forecast - {target_column}")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel(target_column)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
# ==== FUTURE FORECAST ====
future_steps = 30
future_index = pd.date_range(start=series.index[-1], periods=future_steps+1, freq="D")[1:]
future_forecast = ar_model.predict(start=len(series), end=len(series) + future_steps - 1)
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 5))
plt.plot(series[-100:], label="Recent Data")
plt.plot(future_index, future_forecast, label="Future Forecast", color="red")
plt.title(f"{target_column} - 30 Day Forecast (AutoRegression)")
plt.xlabel("Date")
plt.ylabel(target_column)
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.legend()
plt.tight_layout()
plt.grid(True)
plt.show()
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import sys
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from sklearn.metrics import r2_score
from sklearn.preprocessing import MinMaxScaler
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.linear_model import LinearRegression
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
# from global_config import DATA_FILE_NAME
DATA_FILE_NAME = "hanoi_weather_data.csv"
# from load_data import cut_headers
import io
# from itertools import islice
from typing import Union
def cut_headers(stream: Union[io.StringIO, io.FileIO, io.TextIOWrapper]):
headers = []
exist_startheader = False
while line := stream.readline():
if "-BEGIN HEADER-" in line and not exist_startheader:
exist_startheader = True
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif "-END HEADER-" in line and exist_startheader:
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
break
elif exist_startheader:
# print(f"{line = }")
headers.append(str(line.strip()))
elif not exist_startheader:
continue
if not exist_startheader:
# If no headers are found, reset the stream and return
stream.seek(0)
return "", stream
return "\n".join(headers), stream
# 1. Load data
with open(DATA_FILE_NAME, "r", encoding="utf-8") as file:
data_header, csv_file = cut_headers(file)
data = pd.read_csv(csv_file, na_values=-999)
if all(z in data.columns for z in ("YEAR", "MO", "DY")):
data["date"] = pd.to_datetime(
{k: data[v] for v, k in (zip(["YEAR", "MO", "DY"], ["year", "month", "day"]))}
)
data.drop(inplace=True, columns=["YEAR", "MO", "DY"])
data.set_index(["date"], inplace=True)
data.dropna(inplace=True)
# 2. Normalize data
scaler = MinMaxScaler()
print(data.columns)
scaled_data = scaler.fit_transform(data)
# 3. Create sequences for supervised learning
def create_sequences(data, seq_length):
xs, ys = [], []
for i in range(len(data) - seq_length):
x = data[i : i + seq_length].flatten()
y = data[i + seq_length]
xs.append(x)
ys.append(y)
return np.array(xs), np.array(ys)
seq_length = 50
X, y = create_sequences(scaled_data, seq_length)
# 4. Split into training and testing
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.02)
# 5. Train linear regression model
model = LinearRegression()
model.fit(X_train, y_train)
# 6. Make predictions
predictions = model.predict(X_test)
# 7. Evaluate performance
mse = mean_squared_error(y_test, predictions)
r2 = r2_score(y_test, predictions)
print(f"Test MSE: {mse:.4f}")
print(f"Test r2: {r2:.4f}")
print(f"Score: {model.score(X_test, y_test)}")
# 8. Inverse transform predictions
predictions_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(predictions.reshape(-1, data.shape[1]))
y_test_rescaled = scaler.inverse_transform(y_test.reshape(-1, data.shape[1]))
# 9. Plot results
# Loss bar
# Prediction vs Actual
plt.plot(y_test_rescaled, label="Actual")
plt.plot(predictions_rescaled, label="Predicted")
plt.title("Actual vs. Predicted")
plt.xlabel("Sample")
plt.ylabel("Value")
plt.legend()
plt.show()
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@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ theta, losses = train_linear_regression_gd(
X_train,
y_train,
# lr_schedule=lr_schedule,
n_epochs=10000,
# n_epochs=1000,
)
predictions = predict_linear_regression(X_test, theta)
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@@ -1,32 +1,53 @@
from itertools import islice
import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error, r2_score
def train_linear_regression_gd(X_train, y_train, lr_schedule= lambda _e: 0.01, n_epochs=1000):
def train_linear_regression_gd(X_train, y_train, lr_schedule=lambda _e: 0.01, n_epochs=1000, batch_size=32):
"""
Train linear regression model using batch gradient descent.
Args:
X_train: Training features.
y_train: Training labels.
lr_schedule: Learning rate schedule function.
n_epochs: Number of epochs.
batch_size: Size of each batch.
Returns:
theta: learned weights
losses: list of MSE loss per epoch
theta: Learned weights.
losses: List of MSE loss per epoch.
"""
m, n = X_train.shape
X_b = np.hstack([np.ones((m, 1)), X_train])
X_b = np.hstack([np.ones((m, 1)), X_train]) # Add bias term
theta = np.zeros(n + 1)
losses = []
for epoch in range(n_epochs):
lr = lr_schedule(epoch)
predictions = X_b @ theta
errors = predictions - y_train
gradients = (2 / m) * X_b.T @ errors
gradients = np.clip(gradients, -1, 1) # gradient clipping
theta -= lr * gradients
loss = np.mean(errors ** 2)
losses.append(loss)
# Shuffle the data at the start of each epoch
indices = np.random.permutation(m)
X_b_shuffled = X_b[indices]
y_shuffled = y_train[indices]
if epoch % 1000 == 0:
print(f"Epoch {epoch}: Loss = {loss:.6f}, LR: {lr:.6f}")
epoch_loss = 0.0
for i in range(0, m, batch_size):
X_batch = X_b_shuffled[i:i + batch_size]
y_batch = y_shuffled[i:i + batch_size]
lr = lr_schedule(epoch)
predictions = X_batch @ theta
errors = predictions - y_batch
gradients = (2 / batch_size) * X_batch.T @ errors
gradients = np.clip(gradients, -1, 1) # Gradient clipping
theta -= lr * gradients
batch_loss = np.mean(errors ** 2)
epoch_loss += batch_loss
losses.append(epoch_loss / (m // batch_size))
if epoch % 100 == 0:
print(f"Epoch {epoch}: Loss = {losses[-1]:.6f}, LR: {lr:.6f}")
print(f"Final Loss: {losses[-1]:.6f}")
return theta, losses